And thus begins the midterm panic of '14:
BREAKING: Republican David Jolly wins Fla. congressional special election in test race over health care.
This seat was previously held by a long-serving Republican, but Barack Obama carried it twice, the Republican nominee was far from flawless, and the Democratic nominee enjoyed a wide name ID advantage from her gubernatorial run. Many experts saw this race as Alex Sink's to lose. She ran on a "fix, don't repeal, Obamacare" platform. She lost. Break out the tea leaves:
Looks like Jolly's night. If Dems couldn't win an Obama CD with a solid candidate against a flawed R, expect a rough November.
ABC News' Rick Klein spelled out the stakes of this races earlier today. Democratsare spinning this loss, but the can't escape certain realities:
Polls showed a tight race with Sink leading Jolly by two points. Jolly took the race by two points, riding a double-digit election day wave that overcameSink's modest early voting edge. This race was a referendum on Obamacare. In an Obama district. In a swing state. With a well-funded, seasoned Democratic candidate. Political handicapper Stu Rothenberg called it a "must win" for Democrats. And now we have Congressman David Jolly (R-FL). Yes, special elections can be sui generis in nature, and Democrats won a contested special in 2010 before getting swamped a few months later. But for Democrats, this result cannot be ignored. I'll leave you with one of the ads that ran against sink over the last few weeks:
UPDATE - Oh, Debbie:
Tonight, it’s the Democrats with all the expectationsto meet . That’s because they have more questions to answer this year, about their ability to message around Obamacare and Social Security, and make the case against Republicans in a district with divided tendencies. Democrats won’t have candidates as seasoned or well-funded as Alex Sink everywhere. And they know privately at least that they’re looking at a dismal 2014 if they can’t win districts like this one.
Polls showed a tight race with Sink leading Jolly by two points. Jolly took the race by two points, riding a double-digit election day wave that overcameSink's modest early voting edge. This race was a referendum on Obamacare. In an Obama district. In a swing state. With a well-funded, seasoned Democratic candidate. Political handicapper Stu Rothenberg called it a "must win" for Democrats. And now we have Congressman David Jolly (R-FL). Yes, special elections can be sui generis in nature, and Democrats won a contested special in 2010 before getting swamped a few months later. But for Democrats, this result cannot be ignored. I'll leave you with one of the ads that ran against sink over the last few weeks:
UPDATE - Oh, Debbie:
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2014/03/11/boom-republican-wins-bellwether-special-election-in-florida-n1807582
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