The nuclear deal with Iran is already changing the calculations of U.S. allies in the Middle East, who see it as the latest in a years-long series of blunders by the Obama administration that has strengthened Tehran's hand in the region.
President Obama and other U.S. officials have insisted that the deal, in which Iran agrees to put its nuclear program on ice for 10 years and swears off any attempt to build a bomb in exchange for relief from international sanctions, makes it easier to confront other behavior that Israel and Arab countries see as a threat.
But reaction from the region has ranged from outright rejection in Jerusalem to whispered concerns in Arab capitals, where leaders are already making plans to rely less on U.S. security guarantees.
"People in my region now are relying on God's will, and consolidating their local capabilities and analysis with everybody else except our oldest and most powerful ally," Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan wrote in a July 16 op-ed for Lebanon's Daily Star.
Though he currently holds no official position, Prince Bandar was Riyadh's ambassador in Washington for nearly 25 years and is very close to many U.S. officials. He also served the late King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz as national security adviser.
Despite the deal, the U.S. still considers Iran's Shiite Muslim theocracy to be the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world, and many Arab states see Iran as an existential threat for its support of mostly Shiite militants in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. The Iranian regime's ongoing commitment to the destruction of Israel makes it enemy No. 1 for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is the most vocal international opponent of the nuclear agreement.
But since taking office, Obama has pursued a strategy toward Iran that has shorted those concerns in a single-minded focus on getting a nuclear deal: U.S. troops pulled out of Iraq as Iran's influence deepened. Washington sat on the sidelines as Iran's theocracy crushed the 2009 Green Revolution. Syria's Bashar al-Assad, with Iranian backing, has survived Obama's disappearing red lines.
This already has fueled the perception, which Obama denies, that his administration is seeking a rapprochement with Iran that would allow the United States to disengage from the region.
Now, with the deal in hand, U.S. officials say they are ready to confront those challenges.
Secretary of State John Kerry will be in Cairo on Sunday to consult with Egyptian officials and will meet with Gulf Cooperation Council members in Qatar on Monday. He told the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Tuesday that discussions would center on a "very robust initiative" to curb Iran's bad behavior.
"We will be engaging in special forces training, counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, counter-finance — a whole series of steps in order to empower all of us to do a better job of reducing those activities," he said.
But it may be too late.
"I think a case can be made by the Arabs that the United States has lost the bubble in what it is we were trying to do in the region in the last 10 or 12 years," starting with the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and continuing into the Obama administration, said retired Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff, former commander of U.S. naval forces in the Middle East.
"I think this may have colored their judgment."
An erosion of allies' trust is likely to have long-term consequences for U.S. interests in the region, not the least being it may mean the United States will no longer be the "go-to" guarantor of regional security, he said.
"They still need us, but if they don't believe that they can, or that they should, rely on us. Over time I expect to see their decisions reflect this," Cosgriff said.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2569374
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