The convention bump that apparently wasn't.
While much of the mainstream media has expressed glee at recent polling showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris surging ahead of former President Donald Trump, a new election forecast spells doom for Democrats.
The forecast from polling expert Nate Silver stunned many when it was published on Thursday.
"Kamala Harris had one of her worst days in some time in our forecast on Thursday despite gaining in our national polling average," wrote Silver.
The forecast says that Trump has a 52.4% chance to win the Electoral College while Harris only has a 47.3% chance to win the presidency. The stats don't add up to 100% because of the small possibility of an electoral tie.
Silver explained that the model forecast took into account a bump after the Democratic National Convention and that this likely led to the prediction dropping for Harris.
"It assumes Harris’ polls are somewhat inflated right now, in other words — just as it assumed Trump’s numbers were inflated after the RNC," he explained.
However, even if her support equalizes in the weeks ahead, Silver says the Harris campaign is hitting stormy seas in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania. He says that recent polling shows Harris only slightly ahead of Trump or behind in Pennsylvania, and that could be a tipping point for the election.
"The model puts a lot of weight on this recent data because of all the changes in the race. And you can see why it thinks this is a problem for her," Silver explains. "If she’s only tied in Pennsylvania now, during what should be one of her stronger polling periods, that implies being a slight underdog in November."
Many on the left have lambasted Silver's modeling for not sufficiently showing support for the Democrat. Rob Eno, BlazeTV media critic, offered a history lesson to explain why Silver may not be eager to toe the line.
After the 2016 election, Nate Silver was one of the few mainstream political professionals to admit he was wrong and adjust his models. Disney-owned ABC bought his company FiveThirtyEight and shortly before this election year let him go. That's probably not by mistake, as he is unwilling to play propagandist ball.
There are only 68 days left until Election Day.
https://www.theblaze.com/news/nate-silver-harris-forecast-doom?
No comments:
Post a Comment