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Sunday, May 12, 2024

President Trump’s NJ rally, and what it portends for the coming election

 By now, you all know that the turnout at President Donald Trump’s rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, was one for the record books. However, that didn’t occur in a vacuum. It is, instead, a portent of a tide strongly turning in his direction. That doesn’t mean Democrat shenanigans won’t cause trouble in November, but it does show a country ready to abandon Biden’s disastrous presidency.

The estimates are that 80,000 to 100,000 people attended the rally, although, naturally, leftists are already quibbling with the numbers, just as they did on Trump’s inauguration. Ignore those quibbles. Let your eyes tell you that the turnout in New Jersey—New Jersey!—was humongous:

That kind of enthusiasm is money in the bank for a candidate. In 2016, I recall that Mark Steyn predicted that Donald Trump would win the election because of what he saw when he attended a rally in Vermont. The people who attend rallies also cast votes and, if they can, donate money. We saw that during Obama’s 2008 run although Thomas Lifson has reminded me that Obama couldn’t gin up that enthusiasm a second time around, in 2012.

Despite all the COVID panic, Trump managed to have huge rallies again in 2020, with tens of thousands of people attending. Those rallies contrasted strongly with Biden’s rallies when tens of people sat in carefully distanced little circles or stayed in their cars and honked their horns.

What mattered most in 2020, though, was that it was the year of mass mail-in voting, drop boxes, and all sorts of dishonest practices, many of which are still coming to light (as was the case last week in Fulton County, Georgia). Polls also suggested a neck-and-neck race, so it was arguably possible for the outcome to go in either direction.

This year, though, Biden is still rallying only tens of people, except that, this time around, he doesn’t have the COVID excuse to cover for the sparse attendance:

Instead, the biggest crowds Biden has been able to assemble have been outside his events, and these are not Biden voters who are showing up:

In the following video, you get a two-fer, which is the pathetic attendance at a rally plus the leftist base’s growing hatred for Biden’s failure to destroy Israel:

Meanwhile, Trump doesn’t bother with Biden’s failed political dance on Israel and Hamas. Instead, he is full-throated in his defense of Israel and his hostility to jihad on American soil.

It’s not just the rallies and the protests, though. What’s fascinating are the polls. Lately, I’ve been visiting the Real Clear Polling Biden v. Trump page daily, and it’s a sea of red. Today, Trump is up by 1.2 points on average:

As you study that, keep in mind the shy Tory factor, which still sees Republican candidates polling a little bit behind their actual numbers.

And even Trump’s lead in the general polls is the most stunning thing. What is really stunning are today’s numbers showing Biden’s approval ratings and Trump’s standing in key battleground states:

The swing state data was an especially pleasant surprise because Wisconsin was still Biden territory only yesterday. Today, it’s not.

Nor are these numbers anomalous. They reflect a very strong trend:

All this data—the rally attendance and the polling—should have Democrats shaking in their shoes. All that they’ve got to hang onto is a swift end to the war in the Middle East with a two-state solution (which won’t happen) and what they think is their ace in the hole: Donald Trump’s conviction.

While it’s possible Trump will be convicted, I believe a conviction will ensure his reelection rather than end his chances for the White House. Americans understand that this lawfare is fundamentally wrong and very dangerous. Allowing it to succeed will extinguish liberty in America forever.

I’ll leave you with a thoroughly enjoyable video as a deeply depressed Fareed Zakaria explains very clearly and well why he thinks Trump is positioned to win:

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